Jordan Health Study Reveals 34 Percent Drop in Burden Over Three Decades

Jordan recorded a 33.88% drop in overall health loss rates over three decades as rapid urbanization and refugee inflows reshaped the nation, according to a comprehensive health evaluation. The descriptive ecological analysis utilized secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 to track temporal patterns in population health from 1990 to 2023 across all age groups and sexes.

The study, published in Health Science Reports, examined fatal and non-fatal outcomes including mortality, prevalence, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years, which measure total health loss from premature death and disability combined.

How Disease Burdens Shifted Across Three Decades

Between 1990 and 2023, the national health profile transitioned markedly from infectious and neonatal conditions toward chronic ailments. Neonatal disorders ranked as the leading cause of health loss in 1990 but dropped to 7th place by 2023. Meanwhile, ischemic heart disease, where blood flow to the heart muscle is restricted, climbed from 4th to 1st place. Diabetes mellitus rose from 7th to 2nd place, and depressive disorders moved from 13th to 5th place.

Overall age-standardized health loss rates fell by 33.88% for both sexes combined, with males experiencing a 38.83% reduction and females a 27.22% reduction. Years of life lost decreased by nearly half at 49.38%, pointing to significant survival gains, particularly in pediatric care and maternal-child health programs. Conversely, years lived with disability remained relatively stable, changing by 2.49% over the 33-year period.

What Metabolic Risk Factors Drive National Mortality

Modifiable behavioral and metabolic risks emerged as the primary drivers of mortality and health loss by 2023. High body mass index, which indicates excess weight or obesity, ranked as the leading contributor to age-standardized disability-adjusted life years, accounting for approximately 11.5% of total health loss. High fasting plasma glucose and high systolic blood pressure followed closely behind as major risk factors.

When looking strictly at mortality, high systolic blood pressure was the leading contributor to deaths in 2023, followed by high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index. Tobacco use remained the fifth leading contributor to mortality, particularly impacting adult men. Environmental exposures such as ambient particulate matter pollution also contributed substantially to the national disease burden.

Where Disparities Persist Across Age and Sex Groups

Disease patterns varied widely across different age groups and sexes in 2023. Neonatal disorders and congenital birth defects dominated the earliest stages of life, while adolescents experienced a rise in mental health conditions, with anxiety disorders ranking highest among those aged 10 to 14 years and depressive disorders leading among those aged 15 to 19 years.

Sex-specific differences showed that ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of health loss and death among males, whereas diabetes mellitus ranked first for females in health loss. Road injuries appeared among the top 10 causes of health loss and deaths for males but did not rank similarly for females. The authors noted that these findings reflect broad population trends, though the design did not test the underlying behavioral or biological mechanisms driving these gaps.

What Limitations Affect the Findings

The investigators acknowledged several methodological limitations inherent to secondary analyses of modeled estimates. The Global Burden of Disease framework relies on modeling procedures that may underreport conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental illness, or skin diseases due to local surveillance gaps. Furthermore, the dataset cannot be disaggregated by country of origin or refugee status, making it difficult to measure distinct health outcomes among the roughly 3 million displaced populations currently residing in Jordan. The authors emphasize that these results underscore the need for targeted chronic disease prevention, expanded risk screenings in primary care, and strengthened local health data systems.

The research was published in Health science reports on October 31, 2026.